Pacific Polarity Brief #6: Should the World Fear China?
A conversation with Zhou Bo
Our conversation, including a transcript, can be accessed here.
In recent months, China has been actively preparing for a protracted trade war with the United States. At the same time, China appears to be preparing for the possibility of military conflict: expanding its nuclear arsenal, test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile in the Pacific, unveiling massive new landing barges, and having its navy circumnavigate Australia for the first time while conducting live-fire exercises.
Such developments have triggered growing alarm across the Indo-Pacific. Paired with growing doubts about the reliability of the U.S. as a security partner, many now worry about a deteriorating security environment and wonder what a Chinese-led order might look like.
On this episode of Pacific Polarity, we hear from Chinese retired Senior Colonel Zhou Bo. During his career in the People’s Liberation Army, Zhou engaged extensively with foreign counterparts and was a consistent participant at the Shangri-La Dialogue from its early days. Today, as a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS), he continues to share China’s perspectives on security issues with the world.
Drawing on his essays and opinion pieces from the past decade, Zhou has recently published a book titled Should the World Fear China? While acknowledging that China has changed several positions, such as conducting joint exercises with other militaries, he argues that some principles, such as caution in the use of force, avoidance of military alliances, and rejection of spheres of influence, should be preserved.
He explains that China's shifting positions reflect broader changes in the international environment and the rising global expectation for China to “step up”, in areas like humanitarian peacekeeping under the United Nations, which reflects a more “flexible” interpretation of China's long-held principle of non-interference. Nevertheless, Zhou believes that China will avoid other changes, such as forming military alliances or cultivating a sphere of influence, arguing that such efforts require tremendous, costly efforts to “herd the cats”, an undertaking unlikely to be worth it without being driven by a “religious mission” or desire to “please the whole world”. He also points out that China, despite its growing power, clearly does not have a sphere of influence today, given its ongoing differences and disputes with neighboring countries.
Zhou further notes that while the United States has been reflecting on some of its military misadventures in recent years, China would do well to avoid repeating similar mistakes. He emphasizes that China's centralized decision-making system reflects historical continuity and stands in contrast to comparable structures under Western systems.
In his book, Zhou challenges the notion that a “liberal international order” ever truly existed, arguing that the concept is a narrow reading of the post–World War II Western experience. As the world moves toward greater multipolarity, he cautions, global stability may not necessarily improve, particularly if the United States embraces a more zero-sum approach that could heighten insecurity worldwide.
Zhou also observes that China's image across the Global South is generally positive and continues to improve, whereas America's standing has suffered in recent years, exacerbated its controversial position on Israel-Palestine.
He maintains that a U.S.-China conflict, if it were to occur, is more likely in the South China Sea than across the Taiwan Strait. The South China Sea, he argues, is more prone to accidents and miscalculations, whereas any conflict over Taiwan would require a deliberate decision by Beijing. He adds that recent escalations in rhetoric on both sides of the Strait, along with China's unveiling of new landing barges, do not fundamentally alter this logic. The crucial task, he stresses, is to ensure that China does not lose hope for peaceful reunification, and thus potentially make a decision to attack Taiwan.
We also discussed broader U.S.-China relations, including the ongoing trade war, and Zhou urges everyone to wait until the dust settles. He also shared insights into the relationship between CISS and the Chinese government.
Our conversation, including a transcript, can be accessed here.