Pacific Polarity Brief #4: Australia in a Turbulent Pacific
A conversation with Patrick Buchan
The podcast, including a full transcript, can be accessed here.
It has been a whirlwind few months. Since Donald Trump returned to office, he has attacked the Transatlantic alliance, humiliated Zelensky in the Oval Office, and now imposed tariffs on friend and foe alike. Such moves have led many of America’s allies to question the U.S. commitment, prompting a broader reassessment of their own strategic positions.
While Trump’s “ally-bashing” has mostly targeted Europe, his actions are also raising concerns elsewhere. While Hegseth’s recent visit to Asia has quelled some immediate fears, there remain doubts about whether his expressions of American commitment to the Indo-Pacific truly reflect Trump’s priorities. Additionally, his involvement in the “Signal-gate” scandal has cast further doubts on his overall professionalism.
In Australia, on the eve of a federal election, these developments have reignited debates over AUKUS; there were already doubts regarding both its deliverability and its strategic implications. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull recently hosted a “Sovereignty and Security Forum,” where he argued that Australia should abandon AUKUS in light of existing challenges exacerbated by the Trump administration.
Trade has emerged as a particularly salient issue. Australia previously benefited from tariff exemptions on steel and aluminum during Trump’s first term, not to mention its persistent trade deficit with the U.S. Trump’s outright refusal to grant an exemption this time was a nasty shock to many.
Against this backdrop, Pacific Polarity sat down with Patrick Buchan. Buchan has worked in Australia’s Department of Defense on counterterrorism, missile defense, export controls, and served as a policy advisor to the Prime Minister on Southeast Asia, as well as a senior advisor at the Pentagon and director of the U.S. Alliances Project at CSIS.
Observing America’s relationship with Europe, Buchan believes NATO urgently needs to reinvent itself. He argues that Europeans have traditionally relied on multilateral cooperative structures—a method that Trump dislikes—which compounds their strategic challenges under his administration. By contrast, Australian diplomacy has put greater emphasis on bilateral relations, a strategy less vulnerable to disruption.
Buchan contends that AUKUS does not curtail Australia’s sovereignty, as the country maintains “Full Knowledge and Concurrence” (FK&C), meaning all American activities in Australia require Australian approval. However, he also praises the “Sovereignty and Security Forum” , which debates whether Australia should leave AUKUS, saying that “it's healthy in a democracy to have debate”.
Regarding the Signal leak, Buchan described it as “sloppy” but noted that leaks are inevitable in intelligence work, especially when trying to balance efficient communication with confidentiality.
On trade, Buchan affirms his support for free trade while noting that tariffs have been the global norm for centuries. He cautions against Australia decoupling from China—a notion being floated in Washington. In his view, Australia has managed to balance its trade and security ties reasonably well; while there were challenges when China imposed restrictions on trade due to Australia’s previously hawkish stance, he believes such a repeat is unlikely given Australia’s subsequent successful diversification of exports, and a corresponding broader shift in China toward a less confrontational diplomatic strategy.
The security dimension of Australia’s relationship with China has also recently gained prominence; a Chinese flotilla recently circumnavigated Australia. Buchan believes that while such actions may be legally permissible, they do not improve bilateral ties nor do they intimidate Australians. He hopes future incidents will prompt a more robust response, such as Australian vessels shadowing Chinese ships, and stronger diplomatic engagement.
On Western engagement with South and Southeast Asian countries, Buchan notes that traditional non-alignment thinking still dominates the region, limiting the effectiveness of Western engagement efforts. In Indonesia, for example, its foreign policy is also heavily constrained by complex domestic issues. He suggests that the West should focus on enhancing trade complementarity and reducing trade barriers, rather than raising tariffs.
When it comes to addressing Australia’s lagging productivity, Buchan argues that deregulating labor markets is key. While China has so far managed to boost productivity through its command economy—likely a function of its lower development level—this may change as it grows.
On broader global strategic issues, Buchan asserts that the world order is ultimately decided by nuclear great powers, leaving middle powers like Australia with limited influence. For Australia, the priority is to keep America engaged in the Indo-Pacific. While there may be no ready “Plan B” for an alternative alliance with America, he believes that Australia’s national security experts are actively considering the issue. He hopes that the great powers can recognize that the post-war order has effectively prevented conflict for decades—a benefit for everyone.
Buchan also discussed several “black swan” events he has witnessed, shared his views on reports suggesting Canada’s potential exclusion from the Five Eyes, reflected on his work with both the American and Australian defense departments, and offered his perspective on America’s future, among other issues.
The podcast, including a full transcript, can be accessed here.